What started as a slow-moving trend of evolving grain trade flows 25 years ago has become a seismic shift in who supplies the world with grain – and this shift has staying power.
One might point to changing trade policies as the driver of market shifts for U.S. grain; however, these changes have been occurring for some time. The recent moves in trade policy have accelerated the changes but are not the sole driver.
There are longer-term trends contributing to who supplies the world’s grain, according to Olivia Nelligan, executive vice president, chief financial officer and chief strategy officer with CHS. She attributes heightened global competition, evolving consumer preferences, rapid advancements in technology, breakthroughs in seed genetics and changing demographics as a few other reasons for the shift.
“This evolution significantly affects U.S. agriculture and our [farmers’ and cooperatives’] collective future,” she says. “U.S. ag must adapt to remain competitive.”
Growing grain production creates high global supply and shifts markets
In 2000, world grain production totaled 58 billion bushels of soybeans, corn and wheat and the U.S. provided 47% of global exports of those commodities. In 2025, production levels globally ballooned to 91 billion bushels, according to USDA data, and the U.S. share of global grain exports shrunk to 22%.
That decrease in the U.S. share of global exports largely stems from Brazil’s rapid ag expansion. From 2005 to 2025, harvested acres in Brazil more than doubled to 177 million – with the potential to add 55 million more. Brazil’s soybean yields rival those in the U.S. thanks to rapidly improving cropping techniques and technology adoption in the country. Additionally, Brazil’s corn yields are rising for similar reasons.
John Griffith, executive vice president of CHS ag business and CHS Hedging, says, “as [Brazilian farmers] are finishing combining beans on one side of the field, they’re planting corn on the other side. That has helped them compete.”
Other countries, like Romania, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine and Russia, are also expanding production and their roles as major grain and oilseed suppliers. The overall global surge in production is outpacing demand, intensifying competition among exporting nations and reshaping trade dynamics worldwide.
“Exports from South America and other regions continue to grow, taking more captive demand away from the U.S.,” says Bryce Banfield, vice president of international sales with CHS.
The U.S. is the world’s largest corn exporter, but the country’s dominance is waning as other nations, such as Brazil, produce and export more of the crop.
Shifting population trends redirect grain consumption
When looking at how global grain trade is changing around the world, it’s important to look at the changing demographics and populations within certain markets. Two data points that are important to understand are annual gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth. In general, as GDP grows, so does consumptive demand. And, as population grows, there are more people to feed. In many regions of the world, as GDP increases, so does protein consumption, which can lead to additional demand for feed grains. The key for U.S. farmers is to unlock those markets that are increasingly importing grains.
China, while the largest market in the world for grain, is experiencing a shrinking population and slowing economic growth. The country’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth is declining from over 14% in the early 2000s to less than 5% today, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“I think the slowdown in [China’s] growth rate is very relevant, but there are parts of the world that are still growing, such as Southeast Asia with 700 million people. China’s GDP growth annually is 4% to 5%,” says Bill Lapp, president and founder of Advanced Economic Solutions based in Omaha, Neb. Lapp recently spoke at the 2025 CHS Annual Meeting.
In Southeast Asia, the population and GDP are growing and the population is relatively young. Food preferences are changing and becoming more complex. For example, rice consumption is generally declining in this region while wheat flour consumption is increasing. A similar situation exists in Latin America. For example, over the past five years, Mexico’s GDP has grown 65%. Consumers there, like those in Southeast Asia, are increasing their meat and wheat flour consumption. Across Africa, agricultural productivity is lagging behind the population growth. To distribute food to the continent, Northern Africa is rapidly developing into a food manufacturing hub and is increasing grain imports to help meet food demand.
“Overall, there are opportunities to export more U.S. grain, soybeans and ag products as consumption of meat and flour continues to grow,” Lapp says.
Banfield adds, “it’s imperative we concentrate our efforts to market U.S. grain in areas where additional demand will occur, such as Latin America, North Africa and Southeast Asia where populations and incomes are growing.”
How the cooperative system is adapting
“We expect intense export competition to continue and we must adapt,” Griffith says. When U.S. commodities are competitive, CHS and the cooperative system can quickly and efficiently ship products to customers around the globe. When grain and oilseeds from other regions are more competitive, the company can capture that business on behalf of its U.S.-based owners.
“This is an unprecedented shift; as such, we must focus on securing new international and domestic markets to ensure a diversified customer base globally,” says Nelligan. “Internationally, we’re strengthening our presence through origination, logistics and supply chain investments. Domestically we’re advocating for new sources of grain demand, such as increased biofuels.
“The cooperative system is committed to safeguarding market access for farmer-owners while remaining a dependable, year-round grain supplier,” adds Jay Debertin, president and CEO of CHS. “Looking ahead, we’ll keep building global markets and driving domestic demand, which is essential for CHS and the cooperative system to thrive for decades to come.”
